'Keep going': Legault's victory message suggests he’ll seek 'more liberty' and 'more leeway’ with Ottawa, say observers

Quebec Premier François Legault swept into a second term on the evening of Oct. 3, and took to the stage for his victory speech saying voters sent “a strong message tonight: keep going!” While Legault did not speak directly about the federal government in his speech, political communications professor Mireille Lalancette said his message to Ottawa was “really aligned with the way he was campaigning and doing politics prior to his re-election.” “He's been fighting with Ottawa like a true ex-sovereigntist,” said Lalancette, a professor at the Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières. “ we will want more liberty and we will want more leeway on the way we want to manage things in Quebec.” Mireille Lalancette, a professor of political communications, says the premier's victory speech was 'really aligned' with his approach in his first term. Photograph courtesy of Mireille Lalancette The election saw Legault and his centre-right Coalition Avenir Québec cruise to victory, winning a little more than 40 per cent of the vote and 90 seats in the 125-seat legislature. A nearly even four-way split of the remainder of the vote yielded unequal seat results for the CAQ’s four main rivals. The Liberal Party of Quebec led by Dominique Anglade dropped to 21 seats, Québec Solidaire represented by co-spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois elected 11 members, and the Parti Québécois led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon was left hanging on with three seats as of Oct. 4. Éric Duhaime’s upstart Quebec Conservative Party was shut out of the legislature despite a roughly similar vote count to other opposition parties. Legault, a former Parti Québécois cabinet minister in the governments of Lucien Bouchard and Bernard Landry, founded the CAQ in 2011 as a coalition of sovereigntists, nationalists, and federalists who would be ambiguous on the sovereignty question. However, he has pursued an increasingly nationalist agenda in his first term, and several observers said he may try to gain more powers from Ottawa going forward. Potential to clash with feds on immigration, health care Former federal Conservative staffer Yan Plante, who has also worked at the Quebec National Assembly, said immigration is one file where Legault may seek more power. During the election campaign, Legault “opened the door” to the idea of holding a “sectoral referendum” seeking more provincial power to control immigration to Quebec, said Plante, who now serves as a vice-president with the public affairs firm TACT. He said this was the first time he had heard the premier suggest such a course. When Plante worked for the Conservative federal minister for intergovernmental affairs, he said “the office was always pretty nervous about this concept of sectoral referendums” being used to gradually move the province toward greater autonomy. He said the concern with this provincial approach—similar to the tack taken by outgoing Alberta Premier Jason Kenney with his equalization referendum—is that the focus on a single issue may draw more support than calling for a referendum on outright separation. A series of these types of votes could, over time, result in a significant shift toward greater autonomy for Quebec, building its case to ask for federal concessions, such as greater health-care transfers without conditions. The federal government, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, may face challenges from Legault on issues such as health care and immigration, several observers said. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade However, Plante said one limitation that Legault would face, if he tries to move too strongly in this direction, is opposition from the federalists within his own coalition. Yan Plante, a former staffer for a federal Conservative intergovernmental affairs minister, says Legault had 'opened the door' to sectoral referendums. Photograph courtesy of LinkedIn “It’s not in the interest of the CAQ to reopen this debate probably, because then it would lose a whole bunch of people to the Liberals,” said Plante. Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University and director of its Institute for the Study of Canada, agreed that because of the nature of his coalition, Legault must tread carefully in this area. “I suspect the plan is to push for more provincial autonomy without going as far as promoting sovereignty,” said Béland. “Ambiguity over this issue is probably more lucrative politically for the CAQ than any clear support for sovereignty, which could alienate many federalist voters who are part of the party’s coalition.” Ford a potential ally, new Alberta premier a wildcard On health care, several observers said Legault may have some provincial allies, especially Ontario Premier Doug Ford. Following the announcement of Legault’s re-election, Ford tweeted his congratulations. “I’m thrilled to see my friend, Premier @francoislegault, receive another strong mandate from the people of #Quebec,” tweeted Ford on Oct. 3. “Let’s keep building deeper ties between our two provinces and strengthen the economic bonds between us.” Ontario Premier Doug Ford issued a tweet on Oct. 3, saying 'I'm thrilled to see my friend' François Legault re-elected as Quebec premier. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade Given the similar style of the two politicians, they can be effective allies, said Karl Bélanger, a former NDP staffer who served as a key architect of Jack Layton's breakthrough campaign in Quebec. Former NDP national director Karl Bélanger said Legault could have an ally on health care in Ontario Premier Doug Ford. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade “I think Ford and Legault see eye to eye on many policies, and they have a friendly relationship,” said Bélanger, who is now president at Traxxion Stratégies. “They are both right-leaning politicians with that kind of a fatherly figure, no-nonsense approach to politics.” With Ford also recently receiving a large second majority mandate, Plante agreed that the premiers of Canada’s two largest provinces, may have common causes where they can work together. He added it is his understanding that during the pandemic, Legault and Ford spoke at least once a week, and their teams spoke every day. “They’re two very similar politicians,” said Plante. “They’re like your cousin, your uncle, your neighbour—the ordinary guy.” “If you have the premiers of Quebec and Ontario working together to put pressure on Ottawa, it can be pretty effective,” said Plante, noting that together, the premiers represent more than half of Canada's population. As for other provincial counterparts, Béland said that the new Alberta premier, set to be chosen by United Conservative Party members on Oct. 6, could either be an ally or adversary to Legault. “It will really depend who the winner of the UCP race is, and whether they prefer to work with Quebec on promoting provincial autonomy or criticize it for its opposition to new pipeline projects,” said Béland. What the results could mean for the federal parties While some observers cautioned it is difficult to draw too many direct lines between these results and what the future could hold, federally, for Quebec, Béland said there are some broad themes federal parties may pay attention to. “Overall the results are good news for the federal Conservatives,” said Béland. “If you add Conservative and CAQ votes, you see that right-of-centre parties received more than 50 per cent of the popular votes in Quebec.” There may be cause for concern for the Liberals and New Democrats given the outcome, he added. Political science professor Daniel Béland says the federal Conservatives may see some good news in the Quebec election results. Photograph courtesy of Daniel Béland “The decline of the outside of Montreal and among francophones more generally should be a source of concern for the federal Liberals. The provincial Liberal Party is more Montreal-centric than ever and its federal counterpart should seek to avoid such a fate,” said Béland. “The stagnation of Québec Solidaire this time around might send the message to federal and provincial NDP supporters across the country that policy moderation is probably the way to go if they want to have a shot at winning elections,” he added. “Here, Québec Solidaire is a clear example of electoral stagnation generated by off-centre and even radical policy positions.” Plante said one key difference between this Quebec provincial election and the next federal election is the Quebec campaign was not a change election, given Legault was only seeking his second term. The next federal campaign, however, will be a change election if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) sticks around to seek a fourth mandate. With Quebec’s first-past-the-post electoral system having delivered such uneven results for the opposition parties and an outsized majority for Legault—a factor which drew comment in the election night speeches of several of the opposition leaders—Bélanger said it is possible Legault will face pressure to reform Quebec’s electoral system, something he had promised to do before his first term as premier. If such a change gained momentum in Quebec, Bélanger said it could have an impact in other parts of Canada as well. icampbell@hilltimes.com The Hill Times

‘Keep going’: Legault’s victory message suggests he’ll seek ‘more liberty’ and ‘more leeway’ with Ottawa, say observers

Former federal Conservative staffer Yan Plante says François Legault may try to pursue 'sectoral referendums' on specific policy issues.

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