Hottest January on record puzzles scientist

Last month was the hottest January on record, according to Copernicus, the EU climate monitoring body.

Scientists have previously said that climate change likely made last month’s California wildfires much worse than they might have been. The temperature rise has surprised scientists, who thought the La Nina effect would cool the atmosphere.

Copernicus said last month was 1.75°C hotter than pre-industrial levels.

We were joined by Dr Samantha Burgess, who is in charge of strategy at the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Alex Thomson: La Nina was supposed to cool things. It didn’t. A surprise and the shock.

Samantha Burgess: Yes, that’s right. So there’s natural cycles between the ocean and the atmosphere. And the most famous one is ENSO. So the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, which has a warm phase, El Nino, and a cool phase, La Nina, and we were hovering around La Nina-like conditions, which has cooled the ocean waters in the tropical Pacific. But the rest of the ocean has stayed very, very warm.

Alex Thomson: Now there is this anomaly and it terrifies me a little. But the UK, British Isles, were cooler. Is that the beginning of terrifying evidence that the melting ice caps, Greenland and the Arctics, are beginning to slow down, if not eventually shut off the Gulf Stream and the UK becomes Newfoundland?

Samantha Burgess: No, not at all. Any month, there’s natural variability and different weather in different parts of the world. So the UK was cooler than average. The other place that was significantly cooler than average was the continental United States. But we have to remember that both of those landmasses are a very small proportion of the Earth’s surface, around 2%, and the rest of the Earth’s surface was much, much warmer than average, which led to that record for January.

Alex Thomson: Right. Well, let’s put that one to bed at least. But let’s be quite clear. You are one of the most respected climate bodies on the planet. But you are also quite clear in your report this has in good measure – this rise, this record in January – being caused by the burning of fossil fuels. There’s no question.

Samantha Burgess: Absolutely no question. The scientific evidence is overwhelmingly clear. Our climate has changed due to human activity, primarily caused by burning fossil fuels.

Alex Thomson: And yet one side of the Atlantic, we have drill, baby, drill in the White House. This side, only yesterday, Equinor, the Norwegian oil giant behind the Rosebank oilfield, I might add, saying it’s halving its investment in renewable energy. To those two institutions, as a scientist, what on earth do you say?

Samantha Burgess: As a scientist, I’d say the evidence is overwhelmingly clear. And all countries around the world, bar one, who’s just left the agreement committed in 2015 at the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees and limit emissions. And the sooner we get to net zero the sooner our climate will stabilise.

Alex Thomson: And very briefly, we have it in our gift with available technology to achieve good measure of that, do we not?

Samantha Burgess: Yes, we do. Absolutely. Renewable energy is here. It’s growing all the time. It’s cheaper and more efficient and more stable than fossil energy sources. So the quicker we transition, the healthier our society will be.