‘Trump is going back to the 19th century’, says former EU ambassador

Earlier we spoke to João Vale de Almeida who has served as the European Union’s ambassador to Washington.

His new book suggests countries have been sleepwalking towards a ‘divorce’. We began by asking him whether he thought that Trump’s tariffs are just one big economic experiment.

João Vale de Almeida: That’s for sure. Globalisation was a good experiment. Trump’s idea, I’m not sure it is a good experiment. This is kind of, you know, back to the future approach by President Trump. He’s going back to the 19th century, ignoring that today’s economy has nothing to do with the 19th century economy. And, you now, even the calculation of the tariffs, the formula that has been circulated, no economist has been able to understand the rationale behind it.

Cathy Newman: I mean, the fact that you and other EU figures are now talking up the idea of negotiation, is that an admission? To quote Hungary, for example, Hungary’s foreign minister today said that incompetent people are leading European institutions and they’re suffering from a very serious Trump phobia. Is it an admission that the approach of the EU to date, escalating, has been wrong?

João Vale de Almeida: No, I cannot accept these kind of Hungarian comments, which don’t come as a surprise, because their positioning is very close to Trump, and by the way, very close to Putin. So no, I don’t really take it very seriously. What I see is the American president taking a very hard line on this, us trying to control our response in order to make things worse, us continuing to say, this is not good for anyone. This is not good for us, not good for American consumers, not good for the American economy, we believe. So let’s try to negotiate us out of this. This is the approach.

Cathy Newman: So does that more emollient approach then mean that a blanket targeting of US tech companies, as some have advocated, that would be the wrong approach?

João Vale de Almeida: I wouldn’t call it emollient. What we’re trying to do is give, you know, like the song, give peace a chance and give negotiations a chance.

Cathy Newman: And if that fails, you’ve got to go to war.

João Vale de Almeida: If that fails, we’re going to war and we are not afraid of a trade war. We don’t think it’s a good thing, but we are a very powerful trade bloc, the most powerful in the world, the single most powerful market in the whole world. So we have our tools.

Cathy Newman: Do you think now that an EU recession is odds on, potentially a global recession?

João Vale de Almeida: I think there will be certainly a surge in inflation in every market for obvious reasons. And the inflation could lead to recession because these kind of measures will sort of transform the whole supply chain, the whole value chain of a globalised economy. At the end of the day, maybe a global recession. Do we want that?

Cathy Newman: Ultimately, does the UK have to make a choice between clubbing together with the EU, showing a sort of unified approach to Trump, or throwing its lot in with the US?

João Vale de Almeida: That’s a good question because we are involved in a very important operation now of trying to reset our relationship after Brexit, and I’m very hopeful that it will be a successful one. But there’s a limit to which the UK can go in getting closer to the US in order not to undermine what it can do with you. If, for instance, you go for a trade deal that involves lowering standards in the UK, this will make it more difficult for us to find a veterinary agreement with the EU, for instance, which is one of the ideas being discussed. If you give too many concessions to the US in a number of areas, that puts you further away from the position of the EU. of course makes things more difficult.

Cathy Newman: The subtitle of your book, A Diplomat’s Inside View as the Global Order Collapses, we referenced this global order collapsing at the beginning of the interview. Is this the end of globalisation, do you think?

João Vale de Almeida: Could be, if the whole package is implemented, this is a fundamental change. I don’t think we can call it globalisation after raising tariffs to the level of 50% and 70% or whatever. This is a watershed. This is a revolution. So like any revolution, you don’t know exactly what it will produce.

Watch more here:
Trump tariffs risk global trade war as markets fall
Trump tariff global reaction explained
How Trump’s tariffs will impact Americans